Based on looking at various sources in the Italian press, especially La Stampa (and, yes, I do look at betting odds in terms of probabilities), here is my papal prediction:
1. Scola (Italy) and Scherer (Brazil) go back and forth (see La Stampa link);
2. My personal hope: Turkson (Ghana) "goes up the middle" and wins (see La Stampa link).
Also, to make any prediction, you have to decide what to discount--things like the somewhat hubristic tendency of American reporters to exaggerate the attractiveness of American candidates to people from other cultures and seize on any tidbit that reinforces that tendency. I also discount another American cultural tendency: to focus on a papal candidate as a potential corporate CEO.
All predictions are based on information and intuition--and, yes, my own temperament. You have mine.
(I also think that the above scenario is unsurprising and something that any reasonable observer can plausibly deduce if they follow the coverage.)